Russia – The paper tiger that still bites

By Ayaan Karan 
Real Clear Wire

Europe seems to be on the brink of war with Russia. Reports are being released almost daily suggesting the Kremlin plans to attack NATO member states with a combination of drones and cyberwarfare. The most striking report comes from the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, which claims that the CIA warned France, Italy, and Spain about the Kremlin's plans to launch a drone attack from shipping containers in the Mediterranean Sea. Another report suggests that this hybrid war has already begun. An anonymous French official said Paris is already conducting covert military operations against Russia. The nature of these military operations remains unclear.

But Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has left many analysts skeptical about whether Russia is brazen enough to launch an attack on a NATO member state, even if it were limited. They argue that the Ukraine war has left Russia bogged down and ill-equipped to open another front. But make no mistake, the operation in Ukraine has not paralyzed Russia. The Kremlin is ready to mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional troops and continues to stockpile drones and other munitions. Time is of the essence, and European nations must respond by addressing glaring military deficiencies and mentally preparing their populations for the possibility of war.

The stalemate in Ukraine has shaped up to be a quagmire for Vladimir Putin. More importantly, it has weakened his position at home, leaving him increasingly desperate for some kind of victory. As a result, this winter is expected to be one of the war’s most brutal as Russia continues to ramp up drone production and plans to increase its bombardment of Ukraine. Russia is also expected to rally more conscripts and renew the northern Ukraine offensive to pressure the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron recently said the Kremlin may mobilize 600,000 new men by the end of 2027. As Ukraine struggles to replenish its own air defenses and ground forces, the fear of a Russian victory looms large. If Ukraine is forced into a temporary ceasefire or permanent arbitration, it would allow a rejuvenated Russian military to set its eyes on a NATO member-state.

Europe, by contrast, is in a precarious position. European member states lack the defense industrial base to produce the munitions needed for a prolonged conflict with a rejuvenated Russia. They lack a multidomain warfare doctrine and sufficient anti-drone capabilities to confront a Russian attack as effectively as possible. NATO Secretary-General Rutte also stressed that Europe isn’t building enough refineries, which are vital for maintaining aircraft like the F-35.

These challenges intensify when we consider where Russia is likely to attack: Estonia. The Kremlin recently ordered a curfew on its side of the Narva River, opposite the Estonian town of Narva. Suspicions are being raised that the curfew is a part of Russian preparations for a future assault across the river. The Narva scenario presents NATO with additional challenges as Estonia lacks the troop numbers, rapid-response capabilities, drone interceptors, and electronic warfare systems to blunt a Russian attack.

Europe's greatest ally, the United States, is distracted by the conflict with Iran. While the continent’s security burden has partially shifted from the United States to Europe over the past decade, member states remain ill-equipped to handle a limited Russian invasion of a member state logistically or in terms of munitions. These member-states continue to rely on the prospect of American surge forces in the event of a conflict with Russia. While the United States is not planning to leave the continent anytime soon, evidenced by the Pentagon’s push to deploy 10,000 additional troops to Poland, it continues to prioritize its adversaries in the Middle East and Asia.

To be clear, these comparisons don’t fully account for the fact that Russia also faces chronic munitions and logistical issues. But Russia has a non-lethal ace up its sleeve: public opinion. As we saw with the blatantly rigged Russian election, Putin is quite content with suppressing public dissent and is well-aware that Europe isn’t. Given the state of European democracy right now, he’s relying on future European public pressure to secure a diplomatic victory. Public resentment over issues like immigration and pensions actively dissuades European governments from diverting funds toward necessary defense investments. European member-states face constant public pressure to avoid conflict.

This presents us with a nightmare scenario, where Russia conducts a limited invasion of Estonia and member-states simply don’t think it’s worth it politically to intervene as long as Russia doesn’t continue. Such a scenario may seem unlikely, but we must remember that invoking Article 5 requires unanimous consensus. If, for example, the Spanish people don’t believe it’s worth going to war with Russia over a small Estonian town, the Spanish government may refuse to vote in favor of invocation. Unlike the spending and strategic aspects of Europe’s security needs, if the continent simply doesn’t act, they hand Russia a victory. Euroscepticism is all the rage now, and if it persists, Europe may lose a war with Russia from a lack of will. No amount of defense spending can ameliorate a lack of will.

When laid out like this, Europe’s problems seem too great to overcome. But Europe has overcome many security challenges in the past. Most recently, European member states have increased defense spending and strategically planned for war scenarios in which the United States wouldn’t provide significant surge forces. With swift strategic planning and a meticulous public-relations campaign, Europe can absolutely blunt the possibility of a Russian military or diplomatic victory. However, this begins by rejecting the notion that Russia has been defeated; they have not. The Kremlin is still on the prowl and ready to bite at the first opportunity.

Ayaan Karan is a political science student at UC Berkeley with a focus on foreign policy and Shia Islam. His work examines geopolitics, sectarian dynamics, and state power in the Middle East.

••• Publisher's note: A free press is critical to having well-informed voters and citizens. While some news organizations opt for paid websites or costly paywalls, The Highland County Press has maintained a free newspaper and website for the last 27 years for our community. If you would like to contribute to this service – and want it to continue – it would be greatly appreciated. Donations may be made to: The Highland County Press, P.O. Box 849, Hillsboro, Ohio 45133. Please include "for website" on the memo line.