U.S., Japan and Australia need South Korea to deter China
By Elizabeth May
Real Clear Wire
China has intensified its saber-rattling against Taiwan. Its persistent operations mark a 300 percent annual increase in Chinese military pressure, according to U.S. sources. Beijing is also testing traditional U.S. defense parameters with novel maritime routes and maneuvers. Its posturing exacerbates fears that Taiwan, China’s democratic counterpoint, could become the next international flashpoint.
Washington faces disarray among its allies. Japan and Australia have reportedly agreed to a “one theatre” concept that would link security in the East and South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, but South Korea remains reluctant to engage. Moreover, rigid U.S. immigration policies and trade demands are causing disenchantment in Seoul.
As a regional logistics hub, South Korea could add greatly to U.S. deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing. It could stage additional forward-deployed forces, pre-position munitions, and conduct maintenance, repair, and overhaul operations. This potential augments Seoul’s value as an ally. The U.S. must persuade South Korea to join economic and security frameworks with Japan and Australia to bolster regional defense against China.
The U.S. should facilitate consultations with South Korea, Japan, and Australia on critical, dual-use technologies. The focus should be on artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum capabilities. In early September, South Korean and Japanese defense ministers met in Seoul for the first time in a decade, agreeing to "explore potential" in advanced science and technology fields.
A couple of days later, officials broached cooperation in supply chain and cutting-edge technologies, mentioning AI and quantum technology during high-level economic talks. Last month’s summit between President Lee Jae Myung and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba also spotlighted bilateral cooperation in AI. South Korean and Japanese businesses and research institutions have already initiated collaboration in AI and in quantum. South Korea also enjoys exchanges in both fields with Australia.
Aspirations to become a global AI powerhouse and to revitalize the economy post-martial law could make Seoul especially receptive to agreements that align its technical interests with U.S.-ROK-Japan or U.S.-Australia-Japan efforts. The U.S. should include South Korea in all discussions with Australia and Japan on frameworks for AI and quantum cooperation.
Progress in these areas could expand into growing sectors like autonomous systems or space architecture. They are integral for allied intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions, missile defense, and maritime security operations. The ground-breaking defense ministers' exchange in Seoul set the stage for a South Korea-Japan partnership in unmanned systems and space. South Korea and the U.S. are upgrading alliance capabilities in autonomous technology and crewed-uncrewed teaming.
ROK-U.S. space collaboration is also underway with a forthcoming joint space operations strategy, consultative body on space affairs, and combined tabletop exercises. Collaboration also includes projects with the Korea AeroSpace Administration in space exploration, Earth observation, and maritime domain awareness. These efforts parallel U.S.-Japan-Australia trilateral measures.
A strategy that champions multilateral outreach to South Korea will enable partners to pool resources and take the lead in strategic industries, mitigating vulnerabilities to Chinese coercion. Freer flow of ideas, capital, and assets will propel integration and enhance economic clout. This strategy will increase the cost of disruption to a Chinese regime that needs a stable environment to achieve its development goals.
Most importantly, multilateral engagement will spur Seoul to harmonize with U.S. objectives by embedding South Korea in regional efforts. It will energize existing pacts and create pathways for South Korea’s participation in AUKUS Pillar II toward integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains. It will fortify allies in domains that are key to winning China’s concept of an “informationized” and “intelligentized” war in which advanced information technologies and networks determine the victor.
President Lee Jae Myung recently acknowledged that South Korea can no longer bifurcate security and economics by relying on the U.S. for protection and on China for trade, nor go against fundamental U.S. policy. Rather, South Korea must confront global challenges through a U.S.-ROK advanced technology alliance.
Lee’s overseas presidential travel to Tokyo en route to Washington signaled reciprocity toward improving Korea-Japan relations and a willingness to place cooperation in technology and security above resolving historical grievances. Furthermore, Seoul is forging an integrated regional industrial base with Canberra. As the U.S.-Japan-Australia trilateral bonds through naval logistics and exercises, information sharing, and infrastructure investment in the Indo-Pacific, cooperation with South Korea would be a natural extension of U.S. alliances.
The cost to national development, not military prowess alone, is foremost in China’s calculus over Taiwan. Economic and security frameworks that incorporate South Korea, Japan, and Australia will ensure lasting deterrence in East Asia. Tightening U.S. alliances with like-minded middle powers will ensure the region’s peace and security.
Elizabeth May has worked in defense analysis in the U.S. Government. She is a graduate of the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University, where she earned a master’s degree focused on international security. Her writing has appeared in The National Interest. She has also co-authored editorials in The Daily Signal, the multimedia news organization of The Heritage Foundation.