Harris’ VP pick could make or break her chance at beating Trump
By David B. Cohen & Robert Alexander
Real Clear Wire
In 2020, California Sen. Kamala Harris was tapped by former Vice President Joe Biden to be his running mate in what was billed as the most consequential campaign of our lifetimes. Four years later, after mounting pressure due to questions about his age and mental acuity following a disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has officially dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Harris as the Democratic Party nominee. The conventional wisdom suggests that Harris will indeed secure the Democratic Party nomination given that she is the current vice president and has already been vetted as a candidate, along with rules relating to Biden-Harris campaign funds. As such, it is worth considering who may best serve her as a potential running mate.
The choice of a running mate says a lot about the judgment of the presidential nominee and it can increase support for ticket. Political scientists Chris Devine and Kyle Kopko find that a popular pick of a vice-presidential nominee has the most influence on boosting perceptions of the president who chooses them. This would be of particular importance as Kamala Harris has a relatively high number of Americans who have not yet made up their minds about her.
Beyond the electoral effects, running mates matter because vice presidents are just one heartbeat away from the presidency, the most powerful elected position on the planet. For this reason, it is important that a presidential nominee get this choice right. In 1968, Richard Nixon, the former Republican vice president from California, picked Maryland Gov. Spiro Agnew to be his number two. Five years later, after the duo was reelected in 1972, Agnew was forced to resign the vice presidency because of corruption, and the vice-presidential office remained vacant until House Minority Leader Gerald Ford of Michigan was confirmed by Congress to take office. Ten months later, Nixon himself resigned and Ford was elevated to the presidency as America’s only nationally unelected president. As the Agnew experience demonstrates, picking a well-qualified and corruption-free individual is important.
If Harris does indeed become the Democratic Party nominee, she will have to move quickly to vet potential running mates. The most important condition is whether the individual is qualified. Sometimes, out of desperation, nominees give short shrift to this criterion, and they pick an individual for electoral reasons, governing be damned. Arizona Sen. John McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in 2008 is a premier example of this. The selection was widely panned, with many believing Palin was not qualified for the position.
We believe Harris has a number of highly qualified and competent individuals to choose from. Once a prospective vice-presidential contender passes the “qualified” test, nominees, particularly Democratic Party nominees, often try to find individuals who would counter-balance their own characteristics on the ticket, particularly when it comes to things like gender, race, ethnicity, and ideology. Political geography is also a factor. Just as Biden considered these factors in his groundbreaking selection of Harris, we believe she would likely choose a centrist white male who could appeal to working class voters in swing states – particularly those who believe Democrats are too liberal and Trump is too toxic.
Several Democrats have demonstrated an ability to overperform in tough races against Republicans and would likely give centrists and disaffected Republicans a safe landing spot in a race where many Americans do not like their current choices. Among the possibilities are former U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio, U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Although a dark horse, Tim Ryan checks many boxes. He served in the House for 20 years, ran for president himself in 2020 and for U.S. Senate in 2022, and has a rock-solid record of supporting and being supported by labor unions and the working class. He comes from the Mahoning Valley, the heart of steel country in Ohio and appeals to independents and Republicans who do not like Donald Trump. Although he lost his Senate bid, he outperformed the margins of both Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 in increasingly red Ohio. His well-publicized challenge of Nancy Pelosi for the speakership demonstrated that he has the political courage necessary for the big stage, especially in confronting Trump and his policies. Notably, he was among the first prominent Democrats calling Biden to step aside and to pass the torch to Harris.
Mark Kelly has proven he can win statewide in a battleground state. He also has a resume any political candidate would be envious of: former naval aviator who piloted 39 combat missions during Operation Desert Storm in 1991, former astronaut and space shuttle pilot, author of several books, political activist on gun violence after his wife, U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Gifford was nearly assassinated and critically wounded at an event in Tucson, Arizona, in 2011, and U.S. senator from Arizona since 2020. Kelly is widely viewed as a political moderate – something that could help the ticket win over independent voters in battleground states across the country.
Though Andy Beshear governs red state Kentucky, the fact that he is popular and won reelection in 2023 in a red state is telling. Beshear is able to appeal to folks across the political spectrum and has done yeoman’s work when faced with crises such as overseeing the emergency response following the devastating tornado outbreak that killed 70 people in December 2021. Like Ryan, Beshear would appeal to independents and conservatives in the battleground states who have reservations about Donald Trump.
Roy Cooper is governor of a state that Democrats have long tried to win back since Barack Obama carried it in 2008. Cooper has shown himself to be an able political fighter by having to deal with a hostile GOP legislature and winning reelection. He is probably best known for shepherding Medicaid expansion for 600,000 low-income adults through the GOP-controlled legislature.
Josh Shapiro is a popular governor of perhaps the most important battleground state of them all: Pennsylvania. Shapiro is a skilled public speaker and has spent most of his adult life in elected politics: twelve years in the Pennsylvania statehouse, six years as attorney general of Pennsylvania, and now serving his second year as governor. Shapiro has shown great crossover appeal and is more popular among independents and Republicans than the typical Democrat. His actions in the immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a campaign event in Butler County, Pennsylvania, have earned him praise, even from conservative media.
Tim Walz is not a name that has been bandied about with regards to the vice presidency, but it should be. A two-term governor of a Midwestern state who also served in the U.S. House, Walz, like the other candidates, would be an effective campaigner in the Midwest and swing states. His policy stances put him in line with the center of gravity of the Democratic Party.
If Kamala Harris is elevated as the Democratic Party nominee, one of her first and most important decisions will be to pick her running mate. It could be her most important decision and will require a great deal of thought. While many are not well known, we believe she will have several well-qualified individuals to choose from who could provide an immediate boost to a new Democratic ticket.
David B. Cohen is a professor of political science and director of the applied politics program at The University of Akron. Follow him on X @POTUSProf.
Robert Alexander, Ph.D., is a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University. He is the author of “Representation and the Electoral College,” published by Oxford University Press. You can follow him on X at @BGSUProf.
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Comment
David
I didn't know "warriers" was a word. Auto-correct is one thing (not the case in this one), but any ballplayer, Veteran, or Patriot will know how to spell " warrior." If napa valley alcohol was a factor in your comment, then even as a vulnerable Christian, I am commanded to forgive you of your "trans"gressions." P.S.: No one knows what HB 6 means. Your home state of California has more well-known state bills and numbers then even the most informed American can remember. Kamala Harris was your Senator. She made her way from Willie Brown's casting couch to the 2024 presidential nominee right under your nose. Unless you have some sort of valuable information on the west coast progressive plan of nationwide socialism, I would recommend a long-needed revival and a come-to-Jesus moment that rational Americans have had the past 10 years.
Who cares about the VP pick
More interestingly will be the people who will turn down Harris for the VP slot. Many of the ambitious Dems will be eying their own 2028 run. But then again, a Democrat primary means nothing now. George Clooney and Barack Obama will decide the nominee.
•••••• Publisher's note: "Joe's decision" on July 21 was the culmination of a bloodless coup by Obama and Dem leaders. Harris may not want to get too comfortable in the 2024 race. They may turn on her as well.
Publisher
If Harris can just ascend to the top of the ticket through an elites' fiat, I wonder what Algore, John F. Kerry, and Hillary are thinking. No exploration committee, no phony donor $1,000 a plate dinners, no primary debates, no Iowa State fair, no New Hampshire pancake flipping, no fake interest in southern States, no empty promises to minorities' issues; all one has to do now is to kowtow to the titular heads of the Democrat party.
•••••Publisher's note: 2020 changed the rules of engagement. HRC is still angry that it did not happen in 2016.
Corrections To Matthew and Comments
My home state is Ohio. Born in Wilmington. Left Ohio in 1981 when it was declared the rustbelt and like so many peers, headed where the job opportunities were better. 3 years in West Texas. Then 36 in CA. My wine preference is generally other than overrated Napa Valley. My return to Ohio was due to 5 years of wildfires including one 5 day evacuation from Healdsburg. 180,000 was a massive event for multiple counties to the edge of the Pacific ocean. CA became too dangerous anywhere I might have retired. My beverage of choice when posting online is gourmet dark roasted coffee. I do not use spelling software. As to the VP candidate, I do not think it makes much difference. Harris has wide spread support from many liberal tribes. And the money came flying in. The GOP convention saw a union speaker. That was unforseen. The current polling is a dead heat in my opinion. Trump supporters and Harris supporters each have no middle ground. No unity is coming out of this election. Down ballot races may force both parties to move to the center. Family and friends on both sides have made their opinions known. The media is already bringing up the "women cat owners without children" per a JD Vance comment to Carson Tucker. Taylor Swift fans are upset. Imagine that. Expect more rocks get turned over vs. the real issues. My top concerns are keeping Medicare and Social Security solvent. Since I am retired almost 4 years. Not on the radar so far. The best comedy show is this election year. Keep the comments coming.
Top concerns?
My top concern is the Constitution. Then other important issues should be deep cuts in federal spending, National security at our borders, Defense in our hemisphere, show of force in the Pacific, drill baby drill, income tax reform, and K-12 school reform (focus on education and security, not woke weirdness).
36 years! That's a lot of time! I have probably only spent 12 months in California. For 10 of those months, I was stationed in San Diego. Then I was in the Carolinas (mostly North) for 3 years. Then on the high seas, Europe, and Africa for a year. I have lived in Ohio the rest of the time, Adams and Highland Counties.
I'm thinking it will be another Electoral College win for Trump in November. But he'll probably have fewer overall votes than Harris, due to the landslides on the left coast and northeast. Then the progressives will cry again over the Electoral College. The process is in the Constitution. But they don't care. I heard this morning that Pennsylvania is the keystone state for Democrats' chances. They lose PA, then they lose the election. Harris will be hard-pressed to get enough states to make up the loss of PA.
Why 36 Years?
CA is paradise if you love the outdoors. And live music, great dives and ethnic foods. From the coastal beaches and hiking trails. Love the Sierra Nevada mountain range. People here in Highland County often asked how I could deal with the politics, especially 13 years in SF. I was not in CA for the politics. SF was once a world class city with many entertainment options. By 2007, fed up with quality of life issues, I moved north to Marin and later Sonoma County. Marin County was where mountain biking was invited. Miles of trails and lot of open space. A short ride across the Golden Gate Bridge to remote areas with never a crowd. If not cycling, I spent many days in the Sierra Nevada range. Skiing. Backpacking. Trout fishing. Car camping. Day hikes 6 miles in to favorite fishing spots.Canoe camping on 6 mile lakes. On one backpacking trip on the Pacific Crest Trail, we did a 28 mile day hike all above 9000 feet. You will never see many of the sites on some outdoor documentary. CA offers great back country experiences. Summer vacations with friends at Lake Tahoe in August. At age 50 in 2006, I quit my job and put everything in storage. 8 week road trip in the fall. 11 states and 20 national parks. Today it is almost impossible to repeat this with reservations required in advance to enter and tent camp in cold weather. The wild west of sprawling ranches. 100 miles from one ranch to the next. Generations of families. A month in Utah a part of 8000 miles. SF and CA's many wine regions offer a culinary experience. In Morrow now, I do find similiar places in the tri state area. Unfortunately more long time places are closing. Displaced by boring national chains. Eventually a trip back to CA. A horse ride 20 miles in from Alpine Pack station to Huckleberry lake in Emigrant Wilderness, the gem of the Sierra Range just north of Yosemite. As environmental groups ended cattle grazing and restocking trout in the many man made lakes since the 90s, my guess is the pack station is closed. Backpacking stoves and camp fires banned about 2019. In areas always allowed in the drought years. Then the CA politics matter to me. At least before more restrictions were added, we were the last explorers. Covid 19 lead to more crowds at Pt. Reyes National Seashore where I voluntered 10 years. Thanks to a high tech trail map company, closed trails for safety reasons are now a problem for park rangers. Published by a SF newspaper writer's ignorance and disregard for public safety and park rules.
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$136 tank of gas
I've been on a lot of beaches around the world. California beaches are mediocre. First, the water is still cold in August. The parking at the shoreline is either expensive or non-existent.
The Sierras are really nice. Yosemite is overcrowded in the Summer. Luckily, some family members and I went to Yosemite Valley in May last year before the major crowds hit. The falls and the Merced River were running full-tilt boogey..
Did you ever make it to Phil's Fish Market Restaurant in Moss Landing on Hwy 1? They moved their establishment a few miles inland to Castroville a couple years ago. They have good fish and seafood, and I saw some live Americana music there at their old store in Moss Landing.
Corruption Free?
After Agnew, this litmus test no longer applies. Vetting misses minor infractions. The media finds them with social media warriers. Then makes mountains out of mole hills. Scandals have become so commonplace, no one cares. Few electricity rate payers even know the impact of HB6 on their electric bills. Convictions do not even sway Trump supporters in the GOP. Normally a staunch law and order party.
There are no standards in today's world of political science. Harris can pick anyone. Her base just raised one million of small campaign contributions. Without a VP pick in place. The opinions of two Ohio University professors are useless. My guess is Beshear.