Gov. Newsom’s office says people are flocking to California; data says it’s No. 1 for exits

By Kenneth Schrupp
The Center Square 

While California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office says the state has seen a “surge” in people moving to the state, data from the same source shows California has the highest net out-migration of any state in the nation. 

Newsom’s office recently sent The Center Square an email regarding the publication’s “close, detailed coverage of California’s population movements,” encouraging reporters to examine a Newsweek piece titled, “California Sees Surge in People Moving to the State,” noting the National Association of Realtors said California was among the most popular states for Americans to move to in 2024. 

California has the largest economy and population of any state in the country, which means coming in second to Texas — which has an economy two-thirds the size and population three-quarters the size of California’s — suggests the state is underperforming. 

Another NAR report from October found that California had the highest net out-migration of jobs — 18,485 —  in the third quarter of 2023, and had 29% net out-migration per capita than Illinois, which had the second-most. 

The Newsweek piece has since been updated to note that the increase in Californians moving to the state was from a 2022 report, and that for 2024 “California did not see high net migration numbers.” The piece's title was also updated to "Californians Who Left for Remote Work Have Shown 'Signs of Returning,'" suggesting widespread return-to-office orders are bringing remote workers back to California.

The California Department of Finance said the state’s population grew by 67,000 in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, which Newsom’s office referenced for The Center Square, but official Census data seems to contradict these numbers. 

According to an analysis of U.S. Census data from the Orange County Register, California lost a net of 268,052 residents in 2023, which is 73,814 better than in 2022. With the Census noting major losses across 2022 and 2023, it seems improbable that the state’s population grew. 

"California experienced a historic population loss thanks to Newsom's policies that encourage crime, homelessness and inflation," said California Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher, R-Yuba City, to The Center Square. "Things aren't going to get better if the governor keeps cherrypicking data to delude himself into thinking he's solved Californians' problems." 

Assuming a similar rate of improvement in population loss, California would be on track to lose a net of 210,000 residents this year — an improvement, but still a major loss, as those moving in tend to be poorer than those moving out according to IRS migration data.