Poll: Newsom leads Vance in potential 2028 presidential matchup

By Jon Styf
The Center Square

California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads Vice President J.D. Vance by three percentage points in an early potential head-to-head matchup for president in 2028, according to a new poll from Overton Insights.

The poll asked 1,200 registered voters who think of themselves as Democrats, Republicans and Independents their thoughts on a series of questions, with 22% of those voters saying they believe Newsom is the leader of the Democratic Party.

The 399 voters in the poll who identified as Democrats, however, favored former Vice President Kamala Harris with 35% of the vote compared to 23% for Newsom and 7% apiece for U.S. Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg.

“After moderating his image and owning up to some past mistakes, Newsom has relentlessly attacked President Trump, and his offensive seems to be working in the minds of voters as he leads Vance by three points in a hypothetical 2028 matchup,” Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham said. “However, despite his charm, he still has yet to pass former Vice President Kamala Harris in polling, still trailing by double digits. While there is plenty of time to go and Newsom still remains the betting favorite, Harris would certainly be a formidable opponent if she decided to run for president again.”

Vance led with 34% of the vote among the 444 respondents who said they would be Republican primary voters, followed by 22% for Donald Trump Jr., 12% for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 8% for Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 7% for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Overall, 40% of voters said that they feel politically homeless. Fifty percent said they feel like they identify with one of the two parties.