Can Republicans learn to win without Trump on the ballot?

By Philip Wegmann 
Real Clear Wire

Populist magic does not translate. That was the conclusion of President Trump, in so many words, as he watched returns roll in late Tuesday night at the White House. 

First the centrist Democrats, Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, won their gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia respectively. Then the mayor candidate who describes himself as a democratic socialist, Zohran Mamdani, cruised to victory in New York City. It was a good night for the left and the far-left alike.

And a depressing one for Republicans looking for signals ahead of the midterms. But Trump had an easy answer. Citing unnamed, but accurate pollsters, he wrote in a post on his social media platform Truth Social, “TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT.”

This isn’t a problem unique to the current president. Former President Barack Obama endured more than one “shellacking,” leaving behind a much-diminished Democratic party despite his best efforts. Now Republicans are beginning to commiserate. The leader of their party is wildly popular with the base; his popularity cannot be counted on to automatically buoy the GOP down ballot.

“It feels like we have simply swapped places with Obama-era Dems,” said one dispirited Republican operative who complained that their party “still can’t figure out how to recreate Trump’s coalition.”

A delighted senior Democratic Senate staffer reached a similar conclusion. The formula for success: “An unpopular president” + his attacks on government employees with “firings and cuts” + “a shutdown” = “a toxic stew.” The results were particularly potent in Virginia due largely to its large population of furloughed, and angry, federal workers during a moment when the government remains dark.

Just five Virginia counties shifted to the right in comparison to the 2024 elections results. According to early New York Times analysis, the other 90 moved to the left. A state-wide blue wave swept Spanberger into the gubernatorial mansion and made Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate who previously wished death upon the children of his political enemies in violent text messages, the state’s next attorney general. But it was more than just dissatisfaction over how the federal government gets funded. Said Spanberger, it was a rebuke of Trump.

“We sent a message to every corner of the Commonwealth, a message to our neighbors and our fellow Americans across the country,” the governor-elect bellowed at her victory party. “We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship. We chose our Commonwealth over chaos.”

Trump did not play in that race. He did not endorse Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, whom many GOP operatives now gripe was a weak candidate. He didn't even mention the name of the Republican during a Monday evening telephone rally to boost the Republican faithful ahead of the election. This may have been a strategic choice given his unpopularity in a blue state that he lost by nearly six points last year.

But the president did endorse Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, where he lost to former Vice President Kamala Harris by a similar nearly six-point margin. Ciattarelli accepted it, campaigned on it, and still Sherrill won.

“We’re not winning anything,” complained a second Republican operative early in the evening. “Mamdani is the only bright spot for Republicans tonight.”

Republicans have found their foil in that 34-year-old democratic socialist with all his promises of government-run grocery stores, free government bussing, and government-enforced rent control. Born in Uganda, he is the first Muslim mayor of New York City and the newest progressive sensation to get under Trump’s skin so much so that the Republican president even begrudgingly backed disgraced former Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. It didn’t work. They will still attempt to make him the face of the party and a harbinger of things to come if they lose their majorities in Congress.

“Democrats have officially handed New York City over to a self-proclaimed Communist, and hardworking families will be the ones paying the price,” said RNC Chairman Joe Gruters in a statement before adding that “Democrats will be held accountable by voters for embracing Mamdani’s far-left agenda and the consequences it will bring.” He noted that this will come “next year.”

And by then Democrats may very well have embraced Mamdani. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, another democratic socialist from New York who has come under constant attack by Republicans but has risen nonetheless in national prominence, said the mayor-elect is the future. “The message that that sends,” she told CNN, “is that the Democratic Party cannot last much longer by denying the future, by trying to undercut our young, by trying to undercut a next generation of diverse and upcoming Democrats that have the parties, the actual party, the actual electorate and voter support.”

Mamdani and Trump will soon clash. The president has previously promised to cut funding to the city if it elected “a communist” and threatened to send in the National Guard to police crime and enforce immigration law. The mayor-elect leaned into that conflict. “Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching,” Mamdani shouted at his victory party, “I’ve got four words for you: Turn the volume up.” A national figure in a municipal role, he vowed that in the coming years, “New York will be the light.”

Democrats will soon dive into the crosstabs of exit polls to see just exactly what they can bottle for future electoral success. The center left and the far left have plenty of time to debate the perfect combination of policies for a winning platform as they seek to retake Congress and the White House. The current president has already drawn his conclusion: The off-year election results are not his fault, and it is time to re-open the federal government. He said as much on social media and will likely say more tomorrow when Senate Republicans begin the day with him over breakfast.

“REPUBLICANS, TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER! GET BACK TO PASSING LEGISLATION AND VOTER REFORM,” the president wrote on social media before returning to Truth Social about an hour later to add, “…AND SO IT BEGINS!”

But for congressional Republicans, one year after the president’s against-the-odds return to the Oval Office, the off-year elections may begin a reevaluation. His popularity with his base cannot always be counted on to save them.