A grand slam attempt at predicting the '12 MLB season
By
Stephen Forsha-sforsha@gmail.com
Anyone ready for some Major League Baseball?
If the '12 season is half as good as the '11 season … then baseball fans are in for a treat.
For the past few years, some of my friends and myself like to predict the upcoming baseball season by predicting the win-loss record of every team, the division standings, the entire season and the end-of-year award winners.
Sometimes I'm right … most of the time I'm incorrect ... but this is what I believe will happen in '12. (Let me know what you think.)
First, I want to give my win-loss records of each team and their division standing, along with quick reasoning as to why they will finish in that spot.
American League
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (94-68) — This team is young, proved last season they have what it takes to win in pressure-packed situations, and they aren't the New York Yankees. Watch out for my pick for the AL Cy Young Award, David Price.
2. New York Yankees (93-69) — They have a lot of offensive firepower, the most money, and that right there will get them into a wildcard spot this season. They are a year older, and I'm leaning toward youth this season in the AL East. Player to watch: Robinson Cano.
3. Boston Red Sox (84-78) — I don't see the 100th anniversary of Fenway Park hosting a playoff game this season. New GM and a new manager isn't enough for Boston this season. Player to watch: Carl Crawford … he'll have a bounce-back season.
4. Baltimore Orioles (70-92) — I like their manager in Buck Showalter, and they have some young talent, but their problem is they are in the same division as the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox … not a good luck of the draw, so to speak.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (67-95) — Besides Ricky Romero and José Bautista, not much impresses me or gives me confidence from the only team to play baseball in Canada. Give me Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar and maybe we would have something.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (96-66) — The Tigers play in what I consider the weakest division in all of baseball. They added a "Prince" in Prince Fielder and have become "kings" of the division. Not to mention they are bringing back the reigning AL Cy Young winner and AL MVP back to the roster in Justin Verlander. They will have this division wrapped up before any other team wins their division.
2. Cleveland Indians (89-73) — This is an improvement from last season, but finishing in second to the Tigers will be about all the Indians will be playing for come September.
3. Minnesota Twins (85-77) — This team's success will depend on the health of two players - Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. If these two can stay healthy (I wouldn't bet on it) they can possibly place second, but as their roster looks today … even with Ron Gardenhire as their manager, I don't see any better than third place.
4. Kansas City Royals (81-81) — What can I say … this would be a positive season for the Royals. With this club … you get what you pay for.
5. Chicago White Sox — (80-82) — Having a manager who has never "officially" managed a MLB game, added with mostly new coaches and a GM who has basically said this is a rebuilding year … I don't see much hope for this
club in '12. I predict by the trade deadline, the players who are veterans and can contribute will be shipped off to a contender.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels (94-68) — They signed the best baseball player alive in Albert Pujols from St. Louis, along with pitcher C.J. Wilson. Add that with a lineup full of power and speed, and I like their chances of knocking off the Texas Rangers as the leader of this division.
2. Texas Rangers (88-74) — The Rangers have been to consecutive World Series, only to lose in Game 7 last year to the Cardinals. There is no Fall Classic in their future in '12, but being a Wild Card team will be their consolation gift. The mystery of the team will be new Japanese pitching import Yu Darvish.
3. Oakland Athletics (66-96) — This is what happens to a franchise that lives and dies by "Moneyball." This year they are dying … and I don't see them being relevant anytime in the near future. Player to keep track of is rookie Yoenis Céspedes in centerfield.
4. Seattle Mariners (64-98) — Ichiro Suzuki isn't the player he used to be, and by looking at their roster … Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner and Ken Griffey, Jr. of 1995 aren't walking through the door anytime soon.
National League
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) — They are the team to beat in the NL East until someone proves they can play with them. They possibly have the best 1-2-3 pitching staff in the NL (maybe in all of MLB) with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Add that staff with their potent lineup, and life in the NL East could be tough, unless the age of the Phillies catches up with them.
2. Atlanta Braves (86-76) — I like the lineup of Michael Bourn, Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward. Not sure on their pitching, but overall the Braves possibly could be a sleeper team in the East.
3. Miami Marlins (85-77) — The Marlins have more talent on their roster than the Braves, but who knows if they all can mesh together for an entire season under new manager Ozzie Guillen. I don't see it happening this season, but give it a year with what could be a really quality pitching staff and they could do some damage … next season.
4. Washington Nationals (83-79) — The Nationals seem to be better than usual on paper, but I have to see this team do it on the field before I give them any higher than fourth.
5. New York Mets (65-97) — Can you say train wreck? They overpaid for too many players, bad contracts, bad ownership … add all of that together, and that's bad baseball.
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) — This team could be really, really good, or it could be a repeat of last season. The Reds made some nice moves, had great players leave the division, but are short a closer with the loss of Ryan Madson in spring training. My pick for NL MVP is Joey Votto, and watch out for breakout, complete seasons from Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs … it's a must to win this division.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) — This team, though the defending World Series champions, aren't the Cards of last season. They lost the best baseball player of my lifetime, and they have a new manager in Mike Matheny. I like Adam Wainwright returning, but the magic has run out for St. Louis in '12.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (81-81) — Milwaukee lost Prince Fielder, and that hurts, a lot. They have Ryan Braun (the reigning NL MVP) who will be back at the start of the season with his 50-game suspension being wiped away. Without Prince this season, even with Aramis Ramirez new to the roster and Zack Greinke leading the pitching staff, I still don't see a finish better than third place.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85) — They have some good young talent in Andrew McCutchen, but let's be honest, this organization doesn't care about winning, and any player worth a dime will eventually be traded.
5. Houston Astros (74-88) — They aren't the Chicago Cubs … and they aren't the Chicago Cubs. Last year in the NL Central … I put them fifth for those two reasons.
6. Chicago Cubs (70-92) — A new manager, a new GM (Theo Epstein) … same ol' Cubs. Besides Starlin Castro and Matt Garza, I'm not impressed with this lineup.
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73) — Two years ago, they won the division, and this division is a three-team race. Stephen Drew should have a better season at the lead-off spot, and with the combination of their youth at the plate and on the mound, they will be the surprise winner of this division.
2. San Francisco Giants (88-74) — They have the most talent in their division with one of the best 1-2 punches at starting pitcher in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. The return of Buster Posey is huge for them … I see them in the playoffs as a wildcard.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (82-80) — They are starting to shape up. This past week, they have gained Magic Johnson as their owner … I like Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.
4. Colorado Rockies (77-85) — I'm a fan of leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler and Troy Tulowitzki, but other than that … what do the Rockies have to compete in this division? The answer is nada.
5. San Diego Padres (69-93) — Could be a sleeper for fourth place in this division, but they look to be a rebuilding team. I'm interested in what Yonder Alonso can do as a full-time player, though.
Postseason: Wild Card Playoff
AL: Yankees over Indians. NL: Giants over Cardinals. Divisional Series, AL: Tigers over Yankees, Rays over Angels, NL: Phillies over Giants, Reds over Diamondbacks; League Championship Series: AL: Tigers over Rays, NL: Phillies over Reds; World Series: Tigers over Phillies; Awards: AL MVP Prince Fielder, NL MVP: Joey Votto; AL Cy Young: David Price, NL Cy Young, Adam Wainwright.
Stephen Forsha is the sports editor of The Highland County Press.[[In-content Ad]]
If the '12 season is half as good as the '11 season … then baseball fans are in for a treat.
For the past few years, some of my friends and myself like to predict the upcoming baseball season by predicting the win-loss record of every team, the division standings, the entire season and the end-of-year award winners.
Sometimes I'm right … most of the time I'm incorrect ... but this is what I believe will happen in '12. (Let me know what you think.)
First, I want to give my win-loss records of each team and their division standing, along with quick reasoning as to why they will finish in that spot.
American League
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (94-68) — This team is young, proved last season they have what it takes to win in pressure-packed situations, and they aren't the New York Yankees. Watch out for my pick for the AL Cy Young Award, David Price.
2. New York Yankees (93-69) — They have a lot of offensive firepower, the most money, and that right there will get them into a wildcard spot this season. They are a year older, and I'm leaning toward youth this season in the AL East. Player to watch: Robinson Cano.
3. Boston Red Sox (84-78) — I don't see the 100th anniversary of Fenway Park hosting a playoff game this season. New GM and a new manager isn't enough for Boston this season. Player to watch: Carl Crawford … he'll have a bounce-back season.
4. Baltimore Orioles (70-92) — I like their manager in Buck Showalter, and they have some young talent, but their problem is they are in the same division as the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox … not a good luck of the draw, so to speak.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (67-95) — Besides Ricky Romero and José Bautista, not much impresses me or gives me confidence from the only team to play baseball in Canada. Give me Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar and maybe we would have something.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (96-66) — The Tigers play in what I consider the weakest division in all of baseball. They added a "Prince" in Prince Fielder and have become "kings" of the division. Not to mention they are bringing back the reigning AL Cy Young winner and AL MVP back to the roster in Justin Verlander. They will have this division wrapped up before any other team wins their division.
2. Cleveland Indians (89-73) — This is an improvement from last season, but finishing in second to the Tigers will be about all the Indians will be playing for come September.
3. Minnesota Twins (85-77) — This team's success will depend on the health of two players - Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. If these two can stay healthy (I wouldn't bet on it) they can possibly place second, but as their roster looks today … even with Ron Gardenhire as their manager, I don't see any better than third place.
4. Kansas City Royals (81-81) — What can I say … this would be a positive season for the Royals. With this club … you get what you pay for.
5. Chicago White Sox — (80-82) — Having a manager who has never "officially" managed a MLB game, added with mostly new coaches and a GM who has basically said this is a rebuilding year … I don't see much hope for this
club in '12. I predict by the trade deadline, the players who are veterans and can contribute will be shipped off to a contender.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels (94-68) — They signed the best baseball player alive in Albert Pujols from St. Louis, along with pitcher C.J. Wilson. Add that with a lineup full of power and speed, and I like their chances of knocking off the Texas Rangers as the leader of this division.
2. Texas Rangers (88-74) — The Rangers have been to consecutive World Series, only to lose in Game 7 last year to the Cardinals. There is no Fall Classic in their future in '12, but being a Wild Card team will be their consolation gift. The mystery of the team will be new Japanese pitching import Yu Darvish.
3. Oakland Athletics (66-96) — This is what happens to a franchise that lives and dies by "Moneyball." This year they are dying … and I don't see them being relevant anytime in the near future. Player to keep track of is rookie Yoenis Céspedes in centerfield.
4. Seattle Mariners (64-98) — Ichiro Suzuki isn't the player he used to be, and by looking at their roster … Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner and Ken Griffey, Jr. of 1995 aren't walking through the door anytime soon.
National League
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) — They are the team to beat in the NL East until someone proves they can play with them. They possibly have the best 1-2-3 pitching staff in the NL (maybe in all of MLB) with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Add that staff with their potent lineup, and life in the NL East could be tough, unless the age of the Phillies catches up with them.
2. Atlanta Braves (86-76) — I like the lineup of Michael Bourn, Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward. Not sure on their pitching, but overall the Braves possibly could be a sleeper team in the East.
3. Miami Marlins (85-77) — The Marlins have more talent on their roster than the Braves, but who knows if they all can mesh together for an entire season under new manager Ozzie Guillen. I don't see it happening this season, but give it a year with what could be a really quality pitching staff and they could do some damage … next season.
4. Washington Nationals (83-79) — The Nationals seem to be better than usual on paper, but I have to see this team do it on the field before I give them any higher than fourth.
5. New York Mets (65-97) — Can you say train wreck? They overpaid for too many players, bad contracts, bad ownership … add all of that together, and that's bad baseball.
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) — This team could be really, really good, or it could be a repeat of last season. The Reds made some nice moves, had great players leave the division, but are short a closer with the loss of Ryan Madson in spring training. My pick for NL MVP is Joey Votto, and watch out for breakout, complete seasons from Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs … it's a must to win this division.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) — This team, though the defending World Series champions, aren't the Cards of last season. They lost the best baseball player of my lifetime, and they have a new manager in Mike Matheny. I like Adam Wainwright returning, but the magic has run out for St. Louis in '12.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (81-81) — Milwaukee lost Prince Fielder, and that hurts, a lot. They have Ryan Braun (the reigning NL MVP) who will be back at the start of the season with his 50-game suspension being wiped away. Without Prince this season, even with Aramis Ramirez new to the roster and Zack Greinke leading the pitching staff, I still don't see a finish better than third place.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85) — They have some good young talent in Andrew McCutchen, but let's be honest, this organization doesn't care about winning, and any player worth a dime will eventually be traded.
5. Houston Astros (74-88) — They aren't the Chicago Cubs … and they aren't the Chicago Cubs. Last year in the NL Central … I put them fifth for those two reasons.
6. Chicago Cubs (70-92) — A new manager, a new GM (Theo Epstein) … same ol' Cubs. Besides Starlin Castro and Matt Garza, I'm not impressed with this lineup.
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73) — Two years ago, they won the division, and this division is a three-team race. Stephen Drew should have a better season at the lead-off spot, and with the combination of their youth at the plate and on the mound, they will be the surprise winner of this division.
2. San Francisco Giants (88-74) — They have the most talent in their division with one of the best 1-2 punches at starting pitcher in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. The return of Buster Posey is huge for them … I see them in the playoffs as a wildcard.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (82-80) — They are starting to shape up. This past week, they have gained Magic Johnson as their owner … I like Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.
4. Colorado Rockies (77-85) — I'm a fan of leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler and Troy Tulowitzki, but other than that … what do the Rockies have to compete in this division? The answer is nada.
5. San Diego Padres (69-93) — Could be a sleeper for fourth place in this division, but they look to be a rebuilding team. I'm interested in what Yonder Alonso can do as a full-time player, though.
Postseason: Wild Card Playoff
AL: Yankees over Indians. NL: Giants over Cardinals. Divisional Series, AL: Tigers over Yankees, Rays over Angels, NL: Phillies over Giants, Reds over Diamondbacks; League Championship Series: AL: Tigers over Rays, NL: Phillies over Reds; World Series: Tigers over Phillies; Awards: AL MVP Prince Fielder, NL MVP: Joey Votto; AL Cy Young: David Price, NL Cy Young, Adam Wainwright.
Stephen Forsha is the sports editor of The Highland County Press.[[In-content Ad]]