2013 MLB Predictions
Lead Summary
By
Stephen Forsha-sforsha@gmail.com
The Washington Nationals surprised me by winning the National League East last season. The Tigers surprised me by falling off in the World Series, and the champion of baseball in 2012, the San Francisco Giants, proved that even in multiple elimination games … anything is possible in baseball.
That brings us to this season, the 2013 campaign of MLB. I for one have been waiting for this season to begin since the end of last season. I think there are teams with some unfinished business that have been simmering from last season, while there could be teams at the bottom of the standings that we aren't accustomed to seeing in fourth or possibly fifth place.
There will also be the usual suspects who would rather just make a few bucks than put a winning product on the field, and those same teams will trade their only stars to save the cash for themselves, instead of investing it in their product.
Opening Night is Sunday, March 31 (Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros), and Opening Day for everyone else is April 1-2.
Any way you look at it, I'm ready for more sunshine and less snow, so without any more rambling … here's my predictions.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
Order of finish with overall record: Tampa Bay Rays (96-66), Baltimore Orioles (93-69), Toronto Blue Jays (86-76), New York Yankees (82-80), Boston Red Sox (79-83).
With the AL East, there will be a changing of the guard, so to speak. The writing has been on the wall beginning last season in Boston, and this is the year the stars will align and both the Yankees and Red Sox battle for last place, because let's face it … this isn't '04 anymore. I think the best signing the Yankees made this offseason was getting Kevin Youkilis, and this will be a career year for Yankee second baseman Robinson Cano, but as a team, I just don't see it for the Yankees.
I do, however, love the potential of the Rays' pitching staff, especially their starting rotation of David Price (2012 AL Cy Young Award winner), Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb. I'm a big follower of Price, as I did correctly predict he'd win the Cy Young Award at the beginning of last season (that's about all I had correct), but this team will be exciting to watch in '13.
Sports Illustrated had the following stats in an article about the Rays this week: They were first in ERA at 3.74 in the AL in '12, along with being first in starters' ERA at 3.86, starters' strikeout rate and first in batting average against. Let's face it, in the postseason, pitching wins and loses championships.
I also really like the Orioles, as I feel they have the best manager in baseball (Buck Showalter). What he did last year with such a young group of players, I feel, will continue this season. Centerfielder Adam Jones will keep on progressing in his already bright career.
As for the Blue Jays … I know they traded for many of the Miami Marlins' finest this offseason, but look at how well that worked out for that team one season ago. Do I think the Blue Jays will be good … yes. Do I think they will gel enough to make the postseason ... no, but like I said, I'm really high on Tampa Bay and Baltimore, so I have that going against the team from Canada.
AL Central
Order of finish with overall record: Detroit Tigers (94-68), Chicago White Sox (81-81), Cleveland Indians (77-85), Kansas City Royals (76-86), Minnesota Twins (70-92).
The Tigers will run away with this division like they should have in '12. At this point in time, I can't see any team in the Central within 10 games of them, especially with the likes of triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera and former Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander and his newly signed $202 million contract, where $180 million is guaranteed. Let's just say the Jim Leyland-led team from Motown are going to be rating starters in late September.
As for the rest of the AL Central, a division I watch a lot of, these teams are up-and-coming, but that rebuilding process is still just that … a work in progress this season. Individually, for the White Sox, I think they have someone with future Cy Young potential in ace Chris Sale, and left fielder Dayan Viciedo is a name to remember.
For the Indians, I like the hiring of Terry Francona (a two-time World Series champion manager), and getting Nick Swisher at first base is a good improvement, along with their Michael Bourn signing, which will be big for their future.
The Royals have first baseman Billy Butler, who is an All-Star, and right-hander James Shields, but let's be honest, the Royals' ownership doesn't care about winning as an organization. Minnesota gets a pass again … they've owned this division in the past, but this will not be a good year for the team of the Twin Cities.
AL West
Order of finish with overall record: Los Angeles Angels (92-70), Oakland Athletics (87-75), Texas Rangers (82-80), Seattle Mariners (68-94), Houston Astros (53-109).
I'm going with the consensus here, but losing what the Rangers did (defending champions of the AL West), and with the way their pitching staff currently is, I just can't put them in the postseason this year. I like what the Angels did with their lineup, and barring injury, they should be able to produce many runs and RBIs this year with Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and Josh Hamilton, who left Texas to play in the City of Angels.
I see this as being the rebound year of all rebound years for Mr. Pujols, while Trout will not have a sophomore slump. Hamilton … I'm not sure how good he'll be, but if I was an opposing pitcher this year against the Angels, I wouldn't want to look at that lineup three times per game.
Yoenis Cespedes is the name to remember for Oakland … I can't say I know a lot about this team, but they have a flair to be in the mix of things when it counts, and I've watched "Moneyball," so that has to account for something.
Seattle will struggle, though they have King Felix (Hernandez) as their ace, and Houston, new to the American League, are not just rebuilding their franchise and joining a new league … in simpler terms, if the Astros were a building project, they are at the stage where they are buying the land at the cheapest rate possible. You know, the Astros' entire payroll ($25 million) is less than what an injured Alex Rodriguez will be paid this season by the Yankees. The player to watch for the Astros is Justin Maxwell, as he can play all three outfield positions.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
Order of finish with overall record: Washington Nationals (98-64), Atlanta Braves (92-70), Philadelphia Phillies (79-83), New York Mets (75-87), Miami Marlins (59-103).
The Nationals have possibly the best pitching staff in all of baseball, not just in the NL, in Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler, not to mention Rafael Soriano to close out games. They are tough, plain and simple.
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To continue my giddiness over the Nationals, their offense is plentiful too, with Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Laroche and Ian Desmond, plus if Jayson Werth returns to the way he played in Philadelphia … it is safe to say watch out for the Nats. (Fun fact: In their mascot presidential race, the newest racer is none other than the 27th President of the United States William Howard Taft.
How can you not like the new Braves outfield? They picked up the Upton brothers (Justin and BJ) to be added in their outfield with Jason Heyward … that is a very dangerous trio not only in the field, but at the plate. On the mound, the Braves' pitchers are quality, and they have a closer who rarely leaves a game without the save in Craig Kimbrel.
The rest of the East, I don't see a whole lot of competition for the Nats and Braves … maybe the Phillies, but I think their best days were earlier in the 2000s (Ryan Howard could be very dangerous at the plate again), and the Mets and Marlins are usually disappointing. The Mets do have a pitcher in the minors named Zack Wheeler who I can't wait to see pitch in the majors (watched him a couple times in spring training games) … he should be a future ace.
NL Central
Order of finish with overall record: Cincinnati Reds (94-68), St. Louis Cardinals (90-72), Milwaukee Brewers (86-76), Pittsburgh Pirates (80-82), Chicago Cubs (63-99).
Will this be the season the Reds put everything together? Will they repeat as division champions for the first time since the days of the Big Red Machine? Also, can the pitching stay healthy enough to get them their first postseason series win since 1995?
All of that is a real possibility for the Reds, but they will still have to get past the St. Louis Cardinals as I believe they are the top two teams of the Central.
For Cincinnati, they seem to have everything ready to take that next step … plus their bench is improved from last season, and Johnny Cueto will be in the running for the Cy Young award. Bold prediction is Jay Bruce knocks in over 100 RBIs with 40 home runs, and Votto will continue to be a Top 10 player in baseball. One thing to watch out for in Cincinnati is the overall health of their starting five .. it's going to be tough (along with a lot of luck) to have all five starters not miss a scheduled start due to injury for a second consecutive season.
Besides the Cardinals and the Reds, the Pirates have talent (Andrew McCutchen), but they haven't had a winning season in 20 years, the Cubs are still trying to build a team and the Brewers will be middle of the pack in the division, but if Ryan Braun stays on the field, who knows with this team.
NL West
Order of finish with overall record: San Francisco Giants (92-70), LA Dodgers (89-73), Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86), San Diego Padres (70-92), Colorado Rockies (68-94).
This is a two-team battle in the West as the Giants are the defending champions of baseball, and the Dodgers have spent over $200 million to try to leap over the Giants in the standings.
If the Giants play in '13 the way they did in the '12 postseason, it won't matter how much money the Dodgers are spending. One matchup I can't wait for to happen this season is a Matt Cain vs. Clayton Kershaw matchup (it happens on Opening Day) … and hopefully it will happen again in late September (they play their final series against each other Sept. 24-26), with the top spot in the division (and postseason spot) on the line.
As for the D-Backs, San Diego Padres and Rockies … they have it tough having to play the Giants and Dodgers more than most teams, this will not be their year.
MLB POSTSEASON
AL Wild Card — Baltimore Orioles over Oakland Athletics
NL Wild Card — Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals
ALDS — Tampa Bay Rays over Los Angeles Angels (3-1)
ALDS — Detroit Tigers over Baltimore Orioles (3-0)
NLDS — Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves (4-2)
NLDS — Washington Nationals over San Francisco Giants (4-3)
ALCS — Detroit Tigers over Tampa Bay Rays (4-2)
NLCS — Washington Nationals over Cincinnati Reds (4-2)
World Series Prediction
Detroit Tigers over Washington Nationals (4-3)
I believe these are the two best teams in baseball. The Tigers have a lot of unfinished business left in the Fall Classic, and with Verlander leading the way, this will be the year of the Tigers.
Wouldn't this be a great Game 1 matchup of the World Series in Strasburg vs. Verlander? Yes, I drool over top quality pitching match-ups. I'm picking the Series to go seven games just for the fact what is better in baseball than a Game 7 of a World Series?
MLB Awards
AL MVP — Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
NL MVP — Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds)
AL Cy Young — David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
NL Cy Young — Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles)
NL Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker (Cincinnati Reds)
AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers (Tampa Bay Rays)
NL Rookie of the Year: Adam Eaton (Arizona Diamondbacks)
That brings us to this season, the 2013 campaign of MLB. I for one have been waiting for this season to begin since the end of last season. I think there are teams with some unfinished business that have been simmering from last season, while there could be teams at the bottom of the standings that we aren't accustomed to seeing in fourth or possibly fifth place.
There will also be the usual suspects who would rather just make a few bucks than put a winning product on the field, and those same teams will trade their only stars to save the cash for themselves, instead of investing it in their product.
Opening Night is Sunday, March 31 (Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros), and Opening Day for everyone else is April 1-2.
Any way you look at it, I'm ready for more sunshine and less snow, so without any more rambling … here's my predictions.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
Order of finish with overall record: Tampa Bay Rays (96-66), Baltimore Orioles (93-69), Toronto Blue Jays (86-76), New York Yankees (82-80), Boston Red Sox (79-83).
With the AL East, there will be a changing of the guard, so to speak. The writing has been on the wall beginning last season in Boston, and this is the year the stars will align and both the Yankees and Red Sox battle for last place, because let's face it … this isn't '04 anymore. I think the best signing the Yankees made this offseason was getting Kevin Youkilis, and this will be a career year for Yankee second baseman Robinson Cano, but as a team, I just don't see it for the Yankees.
I do, however, love the potential of the Rays' pitching staff, especially their starting rotation of David Price (2012 AL Cy Young Award winner), Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb. I'm a big follower of Price, as I did correctly predict he'd win the Cy Young Award at the beginning of last season (that's about all I had correct), but this team will be exciting to watch in '13.
Sports Illustrated had the following stats in an article about the Rays this week: They were first in ERA at 3.74 in the AL in '12, along with being first in starters' ERA at 3.86, starters' strikeout rate and first in batting average against. Let's face it, in the postseason, pitching wins and loses championships.
I also really like the Orioles, as I feel they have the best manager in baseball (Buck Showalter). What he did last year with such a young group of players, I feel, will continue this season. Centerfielder Adam Jones will keep on progressing in his already bright career.
As for the Blue Jays … I know they traded for many of the Miami Marlins' finest this offseason, but look at how well that worked out for that team one season ago. Do I think the Blue Jays will be good … yes. Do I think they will gel enough to make the postseason ... no, but like I said, I'm really high on Tampa Bay and Baltimore, so I have that going against the team from Canada.
AL Central
Order of finish with overall record: Detroit Tigers (94-68), Chicago White Sox (81-81), Cleveland Indians (77-85), Kansas City Royals (76-86), Minnesota Twins (70-92).
The Tigers will run away with this division like they should have in '12. At this point in time, I can't see any team in the Central within 10 games of them, especially with the likes of triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera and former Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander and his newly signed $202 million contract, where $180 million is guaranteed. Let's just say the Jim Leyland-led team from Motown are going to be rating starters in late September.
As for the rest of the AL Central, a division I watch a lot of, these teams are up-and-coming, but that rebuilding process is still just that … a work in progress this season. Individually, for the White Sox, I think they have someone with future Cy Young potential in ace Chris Sale, and left fielder Dayan Viciedo is a name to remember.
For the Indians, I like the hiring of Terry Francona (a two-time World Series champion manager), and getting Nick Swisher at first base is a good improvement, along with their Michael Bourn signing, which will be big for their future.
The Royals have first baseman Billy Butler, who is an All-Star, and right-hander James Shields, but let's be honest, the Royals' ownership doesn't care about winning as an organization. Minnesota gets a pass again … they've owned this division in the past, but this will not be a good year for the team of the Twin Cities.
AL West
Order of finish with overall record: Los Angeles Angels (92-70), Oakland Athletics (87-75), Texas Rangers (82-80), Seattle Mariners (68-94), Houston Astros (53-109).
I'm going with the consensus here, but losing what the Rangers did (defending champions of the AL West), and with the way their pitching staff currently is, I just can't put them in the postseason this year. I like what the Angels did with their lineup, and barring injury, they should be able to produce many runs and RBIs this year with Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and Josh Hamilton, who left Texas to play in the City of Angels.
I see this as being the rebound year of all rebound years for Mr. Pujols, while Trout will not have a sophomore slump. Hamilton … I'm not sure how good he'll be, but if I was an opposing pitcher this year against the Angels, I wouldn't want to look at that lineup three times per game.
Yoenis Cespedes is the name to remember for Oakland … I can't say I know a lot about this team, but they have a flair to be in the mix of things when it counts, and I've watched "Moneyball," so that has to account for something.
Seattle will struggle, though they have King Felix (Hernandez) as their ace, and Houston, new to the American League, are not just rebuilding their franchise and joining a new league … in simpler terms, if the Astros were a building project, they are at the stage where they are buying the land at the cheapest rate possible. You know, the Astros' entire payroll ($25 million) is less than what an injured Alex Rodriguez will be paid this season by the Yankees. The player to watch for the Astros is Justin Maxwell, as he can play all three outfield positions.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
Order of finish with overall record: Washington Nationals (98-64), Atlanta Braves (92-70), Philadelphia Phillies (79-83), New York Mets (75-87), Miami Marlins (59-103).
The Nationals have possibly the best pitching staff in all of baseball, not just in the NL, in Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler, not to mention Rafael Soriano to close out games. They are tough, plain and simple.
[[In-content Ad]]
To continue my giddiness over the Nationals, their offense is plentiful too, with Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Laroche and Ian Desmond, plus if Jayson Werth returns to the way he played in Philadelphia … it is safe to say watch out for the Nats. (Fun fact: In their mascot presidential race, the newest racer is none other than the 27th President of the United States William Howard Taft.
How can you not like the new Braves outfield? They picked up the Upton brothers (Justin and BJ) to be added in their outfield with Jason Heyward … that is a very dangerous trio not only in the field, but at the plate. On the mound, the Braves' pitchers are quality, and they have a closer who rarely leaves a game without the save in Craig Kimbrel.
The rest of the East, I don't see a whole lot of competition for the Nats and Braves … maybe the Phillies, but I think their best days were earlier in the 2000s (Ryan Howard could be very dangerous at the plate again), and the Mets and Marlins are usually disappointing. The Mets do have a pitcher in the minors named Zack Wheeler who I can't wait to see pitch in the majors (watched him a couple times in spring training games) … he should be a future ace.
NL Central
Order of finish with overall record: Cincinnati Reds (94-68), St. Louis Cardinals (90-72), Milwaukee Brewers (86-76), Pittsburgh Pirates (80-82), Chicago Cubs (63-99).
Will this be the season the Reds put everything together? Will they repeat as division champions for the first time since the days of the Big Red Machine? Also, can the pitching stay healthy enough to get them their first postseason series win since 1995?
All of that is a real possibility for the Reds, but they will still have to get past the St. Louis Cardinals as I believe they are the top two teams of the Central.
For Cincinnati, they seem to have everything ready to take that next step … plus their bench is improved from last season, and Johnny Cueto will be in the running for the Cy Young award. Bold prediction is Jay Bruce knocks in over 100 RBIs with 40 home runs, and Votto will continue to be a Top 10 player in baseball. One thing to watch out for in Cincinnati is the overall health of their starting five .. it's going to be tough (along with a lot of luck) to have all five starters not miss a scheduled start due to injury for a second consecutive season.
Besides the Cardinals and the Reds, the Pirates have talent (Andrew McCutchen), but they haven't had a winning season in 20 years, the Cubs are still trying to build a team and the Brewers will be middle of the pack in the division, but if Ryan Braun stays on the field, who knows with this team.
NL West
Order of finish with overall record: San Francisco Giants (92-70), LA Dodgers (89-73), Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86), San Diego Padres (70-92), Colorado Rockies (68-94).
This is a two-team battle in the West as the Giants are the defending champions of baseball, and the Dodgers have spent over $200 million to try to leap over the Giants in the standings.
If the Giants play in '13 the way they did in the '12 postseason, it won't matter how much money the Dodgers are spending. One matchup I can't wait for to happen this season is a Matt Cain vs. Clayton Kershaw matchup (it happens on Opening Day) … and hopefully it will happen again in late September (they play their final series against each other Sept. 24-26), with the top spot in the division (and postseason spot) on the line.
As for the D-Backs, San Diego Padres and Rockies … they have it tough having to play the Giants and Dodgers more than most teams, this will not be their year.
MLB POSTSEASON
AL Wild Card — Baltimore Orioles over Oakland Athletics
NL Wild Card — Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals
ALDS — Tampa Bay Rays over Los Angeles Angels (3-1)
ALDS — Detroit Tigers over Baltimore Orioles (3-0)
NLDS — Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves (4-2)
NLDS — Washington Nationals over San Francisco Giants (4-3)
ALCS — Detroit Tigers over Tampa Bay Rays (4-2)
NLCS — Washington Nationals over Cincinnati Reds (4-2)
World Series Prediction
Detroit Tigers over Washington Nationals (4-3)
I believe these are the two best teams in baseball. The Tigers have a lot of unfinished business left in the Fall Classic, and with Verlander leading the way, this will be the year of the Tigers.
Wouldn't this be a great Game 1 matchup of the World Series in Strasburg vs. Verlander? Yes, I drool over top quality pitching match-ups. I'm picking the Series to go seven games just for the fact what is better in baseball than a Game 7 of a World Series?
MLB Awards
AL MVP — Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
NL MVP — Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds)
AL Cy Young — David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
NL Cy Young — Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles)
NL Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker (Cincinnati Reds)
AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers (Tampa Bay Rays)
NL Rookie of the Year: Adam Eaton (Arizona Diamondbacks)