The unexpected Pa. voters may decide the next president

By Athan Koutsiouroumbas
Real Clear Wire

Unexpectedly, Pennsylvania’s Millennial and Gen X voters are poised to elect the next president of the United States. 

No longer adolescents, Millennials are adults striving for families and homeownership in a world of uncertainty. For Gen X, 30-year mortgages locked in at 3% feel great, though the launch of MTV is now closer to the attack on Pearl Harbor than today. Life is coming fast for both generations.

With Millennials leaning to the left and Gen X voting to the right, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump likely anticipated these voters determining the outcome of the presidential election that’s deadlocked in Pennsylvania. 

Stalemated at 48% for both Trump and Harris, public polling indicates that the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania will be won on the margins.

Since the 2020 presidential election, there are a significant number of Pennsylvanians who have already decided to change their vote for president. The recent Emerson/RealClearPennsylvania state poll tells the story. 

Nearly 4%, or about 140,000, of Biden voters indicate they are voting for Trump in 2024. Meanwhile, 3%, or about 100,000, of Trump voters have switched to Harris. Trump wins the battle of voters switching sides. 

However, with potentially 7 million Pennsylvanians voting in the presidential election, the 4% of undecided voters represents about 300,000 Pennsylvanians who are likely to determine the next president of the United States.

The last two Pennsylvania presidential elections were decided by 80,555 votes in 2020 and 44,292 votes in 2016. In an era where politics is religion, the undecided voters will likely outnumber the number of partisans who may not vote. The undecideds will be the deciders. 

Among undecideds leaning toward Harris, 40% voted for Biden in 2020 while 28% voted for Trump. This indicates that Harris has not consolidated the Democrats and disaffected Republicans who placed Biden into office.

The undecided voters leaning toward Trump tell a much different story. Notably, none of these voters cast their ballots for Biden in 2020. In fact, 50% of them skipped over the presidential ballot entirely, being unable to bring themselves to cast a presidential ballot four years ago. 

Between these two pools of undecided leaners, neither candidate appears to have an easier road.  Trump must convince his leaners to do something which they were unable to do in the past.  Meanwhile, Harris must rebuild a coalition that has not yet been consolidated just weeks before the election. 

While the education and gender gaps prominent in national polls are reflected in Pennsylvania, they are not as pronounced. Among all Pennsylvania voters, Trump and Harris are virtually tied with the college-educated, but Harris wins post-graduate degree voters by a 2:1 margin while Trump wins voters without a college degree by a similar amount. Harris wins women by 9 points while Trump wins men by the same spread.

The education and gender trends do not provide much insight into Pennsylvania’s undecided voters. Rather, it pivots on age.

Among the undecided voters leaning toward Harris, a whopping 73% are aged 30-39. This is a five-alarm fire for the Harris campaign as Millennials are reflexively progressive. It explains why Harris is spending her time with Millennial-oriented media like the “Call Her Daddy” podcast and generating social media clips from late night TV.

On the other hand, Trump’s leaners skew a generation older. Nearly 45% of his leaners are aged 40-49, who are on the tail end of the Gen X cohort. This likewise presents a daunting challenge for Trump as Gen X wants to vote Republican. It is likely why Trump has taken to long-form interviews like Lex Fridman and Theo Von to give Gen X a direct insight into his clear thinking on key issues. 

Millennials seek an idealist to implement progressive stability. The likely issue for these Millennial undecided leaners is that the past four years have failed to deliver.

Gen X seeks pragmatic leadership. While endearing to many in his coalition, Trump’s idiosyncrasies may give pause to this critical bloc of voters who simply want the government to function effectively and no longer be a focus of national attention. 

To sway these crucial undecided voters, Trump must prove he can govern effectively without distraction while Harris needs to rebuild trust with voters who have considerable doubts.

As the presidential campaign heads into the final stretch, the October surprise may be that public polling indicates the election hinges on a narrow margin of undecided Pennsylvania voters who are more reflective of generational divides than political realignment.

Athan Koutsiouroumbas is a managing director at Long Nyquist and Associates and a former congressional chief of staff. Follow him on X at @Athan_K.