Great economy, low unemployment may sway voters
Lead Summary
By
-
By Jim Thompson
HCP columnist
In less than two months, we will be voting across America. The election will no doubt have national implications, although all the races are local. There is only one national office in the country, and that is the office of president. So, we will vote for members of Congress, some senators and others in local races.
Some think this election will be a referendum on the president, even though he is not on the ballot. I can make a great and accurate prediction on this question. The party that comes out with majorities in the House and Senate, or the party that moves the House and Senate balances one way or the other from where they are now, will declare the election was indeed a mandate on the president in line with their views.
The other party will say, “Eh, not so much.”
There are a number of conditions in this country that have developed in the past 20 months that are worth considering as you prepare to vote. I thought I would list some of them for you.
• Hunger in the U.S. has fallen to the lowest level in a decade. According to Bloomberg (Sept. 5, 2018): “The number of people facing hunger in the U.S. declined last year to the lowest since 2007 as unemployment fell, a key data point as Congress debates changes to food-aid programs as part of farm legislation.”
• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national unemployment rate was 3.9 percent through August 2018. The African-American unemployment rate stood at 6.3 percent and the Latino unemployment rate stood at 4.7 percent, both near or at record lows.
• Reuters (Aug. 29, 2018) reported second quarter GDP was raised to 4.2 percent, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014.
• According to MarketWatch (Sept. 14, 2018) the cost of imported goods fell (excluding oil) 0.1 percent in August or a 0.6-percent drop if you include oil. It is the biggest drop in two and a half years.
• “Middle-class income rose above $61,000 for the first time last year, U.S. Census Bureau says” blared the headline from the Washington Post on Sept. 12, 2018. The article opens with: “Middle-class income rose to the highest recorded levels in 2017 and the national poverty rate declined as the benefits of the strong economy lifted the fortunes of more Americans, the U.S. Census reported Wednesday.”
• Air transportation is an indicator of a robust economy. According to Airlines for America (A4A) (Aug. 29, 2018): “'This Labor Day, U.S. airlines are enabling more passengers than ever before to take to the skies to see loved ones or visit exciting destinations because of improved accessibility for all,’ said A4A Vice President and Chief Economist John Heimlich…’ 2018 has been an exceptionally busy year for air travel, with 20 out of the 25 busiest days ever recorded by the Transportation Security Administration occurring so far this year.”
• Continuing with the airline industry, The Washington Examiner (Sept. 10, 2018) reported, “The TSA said that nine of the top 10 busiest weeks in its 15-year history occurred this summer.”
• CNBC (Sept. 11, 2018) headlined, “Small business optimism surges to highest level ever, topping previous record under Reagan.” In the article they stated, “The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 108.8 last month, the highest level ever recorded in the survey's 45-year history and above the previous record of 108 in 1983, set during the second year of Ronald Reagan's presidency. The August figure was up from a 107.9 reading in July.”
• The U.S. Energy Information Agency has reported oil and gas production in the U.S. is now the highest in the world, beating that of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
• We are not shutting out immigrants. WRAL in Raleigh, N.C. reported on Sept. 13, 2018: “Share of U.S. population born abroad hits a 108-year peak.” Reporting on data from the Census Bureau, the piece continues: “The Census Bureau’s figures for 2017 confirm a major shift in who is coming to the United States. For years newcomers tended to be from Latin America, but a Brookings Institution analysis of that data shows that 41 percent of the people who said they arrived since 2010 came from Asia. Just 39 percent were from Latin America. About 45 percent were college educated, the analysis found, compared with about 30 percent of those who came between 2000 and 2009.”
• Yet, all is not rosy. The Sacramento Bee, Sept. 12, 2018 headline: “California’s poverty rate is still the highest in the nation, despite state efforts.” Continuing, “Newly released federal estimates show California’s poverty rate remained the highest in the nation, despite a modest fall, and the state’s falling uninsured rate slowed for the first time since before Medicaid expansion.”
The most disturbing data of all, however, comes from Investor’s Business Daily, Aug. 16, 2017, over a year ago, which headlined an editorial with, “U.S. has 3.5 million more registered voters than live adults — a red flag for electoral fraud.”
The column goes on to report the work of National Review’s Deroy Murdock, who analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and data from the Election Assistance Commission, in cooperation with Judicial Watch’s Election Integrity Project.
“Murdock counted Judicial Watch's state-by-state tally and found that 462 U.S. counties had a registration rate exceeding 100 percent of all eligible voters. That's 3.552 million people, who Murdock calls ‘ghost voters.’ And how many people is that? There are 21 states that don't have that many people.
“California, for instance, has 11 counties with more registered voters than actual voters…Los Angeles County, whose more than 10 million people make it the nation's most populous county, had 12 percent more registered voters than live ones, some 707,475 votes. That's a huge number of possible votes in an election…But, Murdock notes, ‘California's San Diego County earns the enchilada grande. Its 138 percent registration translates into 810,966 ghost voters.’
“But in other states, and in smaller elections, voter fraud could easily turn elections. One hundred votes here, 100 votes there, and things could be very different. As a Wikipedia list of close elections shows, since just 2000 there have been literally dozens of elections at the state, local and federal level decided by 100 votes or fewer.”
Great economy, suspect election credentials. Ought to make for interesting times in November and beyond. And it brings up an old question, did Hillary Clinton win the popular election for president in 2016 among live voters?
Jim Thompson, formerly of Marshall, is a graduate of Hillsboro High School and the University of Cincinnati. He resides in Duluth, Ga. and is a columnist for The Highland County Press.
HCP columnist
In less than two months, we will be voting across America. The election will no doubt have national implications, although all the races are local. There is only one national office in the country, and that is the office of president. So, we will vote for members of Congress, some senators and others in local races.
Some think this election will be a referendum on the president, even though he is not on the ballot. I can make a great and accurate prediction on this question. The party that comes out with majorities in the House and Senate, or the party that moves the House and Senate balances one way or the other from where they are now, will declare the election was indeed a mandate on the president in line with their views.
The other party will say, “Eh, not so much.”
There are a number of conditions in this country that have developed in the past 20 months that are worth considering as you prepare to vote. I thought I would list some of them for you.
• Hunger in the U.S. has fallen to the lowest level in a decade. According to Bloomberg (Sept. 5, 2018): “The number of people facing hunger in the U.S. declined last year to the lowest since 2007 as unemployment fell, a key data point as Congress debates changes to food-aid programs as part of farm legislation.”
• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national unemployment rate was 3.9 percent through August 2018. The African-American unemployment rate stood at 6.3 percent and the Latino unemployment rate stood at 4.7 percent, both near or at record lows.
• Reuters (Aug. 29, 2018) reported second quarter GDP was raised to 4.2 percent, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014.
• According to MarketWatch (Sept. 14, 2018) the cost of imported goods fell (excluding oil) 0.1 percent in August or a 0.6-percent drop if you include oil. It is the biggest drop in two and a half years.
• “Middle-class income rose above $61,000 for the first time last year, U.S. Census Bureau says” blared the headline from the Washington Post on Sept. 12, 2018. The article opens with: “Middle-class income rose to the highest recorded levels in 2017 and the national poverty rate declined as the benefits of the strong economy lifted the fortunes of more Americans, the U.S. Census reported Wednesday.”
• Air transportation is an indicator of a robust economy. According to Airlines for America (A4A) (Aug. 29, 2018): “'This Labor Day, U.S. airlines are enabling more passengers than ever before to take to the skies to see loved ones or visit exciting destinations because of improved accessibility for all,’ said A4A Vice President and Chief Economist John Heimlich…’ 2018 has been an exceptionally busy year for air travel, with 20 out of the 25 busiest days ever recorded by the Transportation Security Administration occurring so far this year.”
• Continuing with the airline industry, The Washington Examiner (Sept. 10, 2018) reported, “The TSA said that nine of the top 10 busiest weeks in its 15-year history occurred this summer.”
• CNBC (Sept. 11, 2018) headlined, “Small business optimism surges to highest level ever, topping previous record under Reagan.” In the article they stated, “The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 108.8 last month, the highest level ever recorded in the survey's 45-year history and above the previous record of 108 in 1983, set during the second year of Ronald Reagan's presidency. The August figure was up from a 107.9 reading in July.”
• The U.S. Energy Information Agency has reported oil and gas production in the U.S. is now the highest in the world, beating that of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
• We are not shutting out immigrants. WRAL in Raleigh, N.C. reported on Sept. 13, 2018: “Share of U.S. population born abroad hits a 108-year peak.” Reporting on data from the Census Bureau, the piece continues: “The Census Bureau’s figures for 2017 confirm a major shift in who is coming to the United States. For years newcomers tended to be from Latin America, but a Brookings Institution analysis of that data shows that 41 percent of the people who said they arrived since 2010 came from Asia. Just 39 percent were from Latin America. About 45 percent were college educated, the analysis found, compared with about 30 percent of those who came between 2000 and 2009.”
• Yet, all is not rosy. The Sacramento Bee, Sept. 12, 2018 headline: “California’s poverty rate is still the highest in the nation, despite state efforts.” Continuing, “Newly released federal estimates show California’s poverty rate remained the highest in the nation, despite a modest fall, and the state’s falling uninsured rate slowed for the first time since before Medicaid expansion.”
The most disturbing data of all, however, comes from Investor’s Business Daily, Aug. 16, 2017, over a year ago, which headlined an editorial with, “U.S. has 3.5 million more registered voters than live adults — a red flag for electoral fraud.”
The column goes on to report the work of National Review’s Deroy Murdock, who analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and data from the Election Assistance Commission, in cooperation with Judicial Watch’s Election Integrity Project.
“Murdock counted Judicial Watch's state-by-state tally and found that 462 U.S. counties had a registration rate exceeding 100 percent of all eligible voters. That's 3.552 million people, who Murdock calls ‘ghost voters.’ And how many people is that? There are 21 states that don't have that many people.
“California, for instance, has 11 counties with more registered voters than actual voters…Los Angeles County, whose more than 10 million people make it the nation's most populous county, had 12 percent more registered voters than live ones, some 707,475 votes. That's a huge number of possible votes in an election…But, Murdock notes, ‘California's San Diego County earns the enchilada grande. Its 138 percent registration translates into 810,966 ghost voters.’
“But in other states, and in smaller elections, voter fraud could easily turn elections. One hundred votes here, 100 votes there, and things could be very different. As a Wikipedia list of close elections shows, since just 2000 there have been literally dozens of elections at the state, local and federal level decided by 100 votes or fewer.”
Great economy, suspect election credentials. Ought to make for interesting times in November and beyond. And it brings up an old question, did Hillary Clinton win the popular election for president in 2016 among live voters?
Jim Thompson, formerly of Marshall, is a graduate of Hillsboro High School and the University of Cincinnati. He resides in Duluth, Ga. and is a columnist for The Highland County Press.