Marquette Law School poll shows Cruz, Sanders lead in Wisconsin
Lead Summary
By
Charles Franklin-
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School poll finds Ted Cruz ahead in the Wisconsin Republican presidential primary race, supported by 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Donald Trump and 21 percent for John Kasich, while 8 percent don’t know whom they will support.
Among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton, with 6 percent undecided. In the election for Wisconsin Supreme Court, Rebecca Bradley is supported by 41 percent with JoAnne Kloppenburg at 36 percent and 18 percent undecided.
In the previous Marquette Law School Poll released in February, Trump was supported by 30 percent of Republican primary voters, with Cruz at 19 percent and Kasich at 8 percent. Other candidates who have since dropped out had a total of 31 percent.
In the Democratic race in February, Sanders received 44 percent and Clinton 43 percent. The Supreme Court election in February found 37 percent support for Bradley and 36 percent support for Kloppenburg among likely voters, with 30 percent each among all registered voters.
Among likely voters in this new (March) poll, 54 percent say they will vote in the Republican primary while 46 percent choose the Democratic primary. Ninety-nine percent of Republicans say they will vote in the Republican primary with 1 percent choosing the Democratic contest. Among Democrats, 95 percent say they will vote in that party’s primary, with 5 percent crossing over to the GOP. Independents, including those leaning to either party, choose the Republican primary over the Democratic primary by 60 percent to 40 percent.
The poll was conducted March 24-28, 2016. The full sample includes 1,405 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results for the Republican primary are based on 471 likely voters who say they are certain they will vote in the Republican primary in April. That sample has a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points. Results for the Democratic nomination are based on 405 likely voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points. For the April 5 Wisconsin Supreme Court election there are 957 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. All results reported here are for likely voters except where registered voters are used for November elections.
Presidential perceptions and matchups
Republican primary voters were asked who they think is most likely to win the Republican nomination, regardless of whom they personally support. Sixty-five percent see Trump as the most likely nominee, followed by Cruz at 23 percent and Kasich at 5 percent. In February, after the Iowa and New Hampshire votes, 46 percent expected Trump to be the nominee, 25 percent said Cruz would be and 1 percent said Kasich.
On the Democratic side, 77 percent think Clinton is the most likely nominee, with 19 percent saying Sanders is most likely to win the nomination. Prior to Iowa and New Hampshire voting, 60 percent said Clinton and 33 percent said Sanders was most likely to win the Democratic nomination.
In possible matchups among registered voters for the November general election in Wisconsin, Sanders leads Kasich by 2 points, Cruz by 13 and Trump by 19. Clinton trails Kasich by 9 and ties with Cruz while holding a 10-point margin over Trump. Results are for all registered voters.
For more information, go to https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/03/30/new-marquette-law-school-poll…
Among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton, with 6 percent undecided. In the election for Wisconsin Supreme Court, Rebecca Bradley is supported by 41 percent with JoAnne Kloppenburg at 36 percent and 18 percent undecided.
In the previous Marquette Law School Poll released in February, Trump was supported by 30 percent of Republican primary voters, with Cruz at 19 percent and Kasich at 8 percent. Other candidates who have since dropped out had a total of 31 percent.
In the Democratic race in February, Sanders received 44 percent and Clinton 43 percent. The Supreme Court election in February found 37 percent support for Bradley and 36 percent support for Kloppenburg among likely voters, with 30 percent each among all registered voters.
Among likely voters in this new (March) poll, 54 percent say they will vote in the Republican primary while 46 percent choose the Democratic primary. Ninety-nine percent of Republicans say they will vote in the Republican primary with 1 percent choosing the Democratic contest. Among Democrats, 95 percent say they will vote in that party’s primary, with 5 percent crossing over to the GOP. Independents, including those leaning to either party, choose the Republican primary over the Democratic primary by 60 percent to 40 percent.
The poll was conducted March 24-28, 2016. The full sample includes 1,405 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results for the Republican primary are based on 471 likely voters who say they are certain they will vote in the Republican primary in April. That sample has a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points. Results for the Democratic nomination are based on 405 likely voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points. For the April 5 Wisconsin Supreme Court election there are 957 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. All results reported here are for likely voters except where registered voters are used for November elections.
Presidential perceptions and matchups
Republican primary voters were asked who they think is most likely to win the Republican nomination, regardless of whom they personally support. Sixty-five percent see Trump as the most likely nominee, followed by Cruz at 23 percent and Kasich at 5 percent. In February, after the Iowa and New Hampshire votes, 46 percent expected Trump to be the nominee, 25 percent said Cruz would be and 1 percent said Kasich.
On the Democratic side, 77 percent think Clinton is the most likely nominee, with 19 percent saying Sanders is most likely to win the nomination. Prior to Iowa and New Hampshire voting, 60 percent said Clinton and 33 percent said Sanders was most likely to win the Democratic nomination.
In possible matchups among registered voters for the November general election in Wisconsin, Sanders leads Kasich by 2 points, Cruz by 13 and Trump by 19. Clinton trails Kasich by 9 and ties with Cruz while holding a 10-point margin over Trump. Results are for all registered voters.
For more information, go to https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/03/30/new-marquette-law-school-poll…