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Energy in the future

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By Jim Thompson
HCP columnist


The brightest group I know in the energy business – the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html) – is in Golden, Colo.

I identify them as “brightest” of course, because our daughter, Elaine, happens to be a senior research engineer there. If you know me at all, you know while I am proud of her, my boasting is tongue-in-cheek.

Since solar panels seem to be coming to Highland County, I thought this appropriate. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) had an end-of-year seminar on the future of energy generation in the United States from 2020-50, which is the source of the data here (see https://cambium.nrel.gov/).

NREL has some qualifications on these findings.

First, these are simulations based on certain base criteria. They are not predictions in the strictest sense of the word.

Second, these figures I am quoting are for generation capacity that could potentially go into the U.S. grid. These do not include privately operated generation systems (such as at a pulp and paper mill).

Third, and to reiterate, these are capacities, no representation is made as to how much electricity will actually be produced.

So, I think the best way to present this data is in a table (see the attached graphic). The data is in Gigawatts (GW).

This gives some interesting results. Natural Gas will continue to be the number-one source in 2050, according to this model. Jumping to number two will be utility scale photovoltaics (as are proposed for Highland County). Coal is still a significant factor. But it is declining significantly.

There are two sets of assumptions driving this model: Energy policy and economics.

Photovoltaics, for instance, are experiencing a rapid drop in costs, much like all electronics do and it is reflected in their growth.

So, the dream of continuing a coal economy looks like it is just that – a dream. The economics of solar panels, wind turbines and so forth are going to be the drivers in the future, after a long and slow start. It was just announced in a New York Times story on Jan. 1 that General Electric is introducing a new wind turbine of a size never seen before. It will stand 853 feet tall and have blades of 722 feet in diameter. This one will produce enough power for a town of 12,000. Further evidence the economics is changing to favor renewables.

Jim Thompson, formerly of Marshall, is a graduate of Hillsboro High School and the University of Cincinnati. He resides in Duluth, Ga. and is a columnist for The Highland County Press. He may be reached at jthompson@taii.com.

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