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Convictions fail to sink Trump’s campaign

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By Casey Harper
The Center Square

A New York jury convicted former President Donald Trump on 34 felony counts last week, but so far it seems to have done little to dampen Trump's electoral hopes.

The conviction naturally raised the question of whether they would topple Trump’s 2024 White House bid.

For now, the answer appears to be no.

A New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 1,897 registered voters before and after Trump’s conviction. The results found that before the conviction, Trump led President Joe Biden by three points. After the conviction, Trump led by one point.

Real Clear Politics tracks betting markets on presidential candidates. After the May 30 convictions, Trump’s odds went down for a few days, but they have already nearly returned to pre-conviction levels.

In fact, Trump’s odds are currently better than almost any time this year.

Notably, Trump saw a spike in polling after the FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate in August 2022 that helped propel him to win the Republican nomination.

A Fox News conducted from June 1 to June 4, after Trump's guilty verdict, has Trump up by 5 points in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

The same poll has Trump up by 4 points in Florida and tied in Virginia.

Another post-conviction poll in North Carolina had Trump leading Biden by 5 points.

An Emerson College national survey conducted June 4-5, also after Trump’s conviction, showed Trump has a one point lead over Biden, within the margin of error.

“Trump’s support in our polling remained the same before and after his conviction,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “A majority of Democrats say it makes them less likely to support Trump (51%) and a majority of Republicans (55%) say it makes them more likely to support Trump. A plurality of independents say it makes no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely.”

For how Trump should be punished for his conviction, the answers vary.

“Regarding Trump’s July sentencing, a plurality of voters (40%) think Trump should receive prison time for his criminal conviction, 25% think he should pay a fine, and 15% think he should receive probation,” Emerson said. “Twenty percent are unsure.”

Trump has seen a surge in campaign donations since the verdict. 

"By the way, right after the announcement of this, more campaign funds were given to this campaign than any campaign they think in history, almost $400 million," Trump said at a Turning Point Action event Thursday evening. 

Republicans have largely rallied around Trump, calling his prosecution politically motivated. A large percentage of Americans have shared similar feelings in recent polls.

Trump drew thousands of supporters in Phoenix Thursday despite heat levels that sent some to the hospital.

"I just went through a rigged trial in New York with a highly-conflicted judge," Trump said at the event, as The Center Square previously reported.

"If we don't win, this country is finished," he continued.

Trump has called on the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene in his case, and it appears his other legal woes will likely be delayed until after the November election.

Whether the high court will step in or voters will change their mind if they see Trump behind bars before November remains to be seen.

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